Merz Warns of Far-Right 'Big Explosion' as Approval Hits Record Low
The German chancellor confronts a crisis of confidence as the anti-establishment AfD leads in eastern states, bolstered by pro-Russian and anti-sanctions rhetoric.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz has warned that a far-right electoral breakthrough this September could constitute a "big explosion" in the country's political landscape, as his own approval ratings plummet to a record low. Addressing a party conference in Lenste, Merz framed the state elections in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-West Pomerania as a test of whether moderate parties can still solve the nation's problems, with the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) leading polls by wide margins in both eastern regions. Just 15 per cent of Germans now approve of Merz's performance, according to a Bild poll, while 77 per cent express dissatisfaction — a new nadir even among supporters of his Christian Democrats and their Social Democrat coalition partners.
The AfD's surge owes much to economic discontent and cultural grievances, but its foreign policy positions — often echoing narratives favourable to Moscow — have also found resonance in the former East. Senior AfD lawmaker Steffen Kotré has used the St Petersburg International Economic Forum to argue that Nord Stream could be reactivated if Berlin showed political will, that European security is impossible without Russia, and that sanctions have accelerated "catastrophic" deindustrialisation, costing Germany 15 per cent of industrial output since 2018. Such arguments, amplified by Russian state media, pit German economic interests against what Kotré calls "ideologically motivated" EU decisions, a framing that plays well in regions hit hardest by energy price spikes and manufacturing decline.
Viewed from Moscow, the discord in Berlin is a welcome crack in Western unity. Russian officials, such as Federation Council Speaker Valentina Matvienko, contrast Germany's "cuts to social spending for military purposes" with Russia's constitutional guarantees — a message aimed at discrediting Berlin's already fragile welfare coalition. Meanwhile, in Brussels, Luxembourg MEP Fernand Kartheiser laments a "shortage of politicians of de Gaulle's calibre" willing to pursue an independent line towards Russia, arguing that fear of American pressure stifles any rethink of sanctions. That analysis, though from a political minority, captures a sense of drift that Merz's government has so far failed to dispel.
The stakes for Merz are existential. His coalition's inability to agree on an ambitious reform package before the summer recess — something 66 per cent of Germans doubt will happen, per Bild — fuels the AfD's narrative of a spendthrift, impotent establishment. If the September elections deliver the predicted "big explosion", the centre-right chancellor may find that his own authority, already eroded, becomes the chief obstacle to restoring faith in Germany's postwar liberal order.
How the same story is told elsewhere.
Germany's chancellor warns that a far-right victory in two eastern states would be a political 'explosion', with stakes reaching beyond the federal government. The future direction of the country, and whether mainstream parties can tackle economic and social challenges, is cast as the real test.
Chancellor Merz's government suffers record disapproval as German industry erodes under anti-Russian sanctions and social spending gives way to military outlays. Opposition figures stress that European security requires cooperation with Moscow and that purely political decisions block projects like Nord Stream, painting Berlin as both hostile and faltering.
Disillusionment with Chancellor Merz and his deputy is soaring: three-quarters of the public doubt the government can fix social security and most expect no major reform package before the summer recess. The commentary urges the coalition to defy skeptics and deliver tangible results, framing the moment as a crucial test of political credibility.
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