Carney’s Liberals win slim majority in Toronto byelections

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party secured a slim but decisive majority in Canada’s House of Commons on Monday, after projected victories in two Toronto-area byelections pushed its seat count to 173 — one above the threshold needed to govern without opposition support. The twin wins in the long-standing Liberal strongholds of Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale, called by CBC and other Canadian media, end seven years of minority governments in Ottawa and give the former central banker a freer hand to reshape an economy threatened by US trade pressure. The result, combined with recent defections from opposition benches, transforms Carney’s political calculus barely a year after his surprise election win left him reliant on ad hoc alliances.

From the outset, the Liberals went into Monday’s vote needing just one victory to reach a majority. They were always heavy favourites in both Toronto ridings, and the comfortable margins — in University-Rosedale, Danielle Martin took nearly 65 percent of the vote — reflected the party’s enduring grip on the city. A third contest, in the Montreal-area riding of Terrebonne, remained unresolved, with a tight race between the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois still being tallied. Even without that seat, Carney’s position was fortified by the defection of four Conservative MPs since last autumn, a process one former senior Tory described as a “body blow” to the opposition and evidence of a brazen Liberal operation to poach members they deemed useful.

French-language media in Quebec noted the muted atmosphere at Liberal gatherings, where victory was taken as a foregone conclusion. Across the Atlantic, European observers framed the outcome as a turning point that grants Carney “absolute majority,” allowing him to accelerate reforms at a moment when Canada’s economic relationship with Washington is fraught. In London, analysts stressed that the shift from minority to majority dispenses with the kind of horse-trading that defined the Trudeau years, including a supply-and-confidence pact with the New Democrats that extracted costly social policy concessions. Carney had already governed as if he held a majority, but the formal numbers now give him the legislative certainty to press ahead with his agenda.

Looking ahead, the prime minister can now govern until the next scheduled federal election in October 2029 without fear of losing a confidence vote. Political commentators in Toronto expect the Liberals to spend the coming weeks fleshing out plans that range from defence procurement reforms to competitiveness measures aimed at countering US tariffs. Yet the majority is razor-thin — a single by-election loss or further floor-crossings in reverse could erode it — and Carney inherits a party whose power, as some critics charge, has become its sole animating value. The victory, however fragile, cements his hold on the levers of power at a moment when Canada’s place in North America is being redrawn.