UN Warns of 80% Chance El Niño Will Soon Unleash Global Extreme Weather

The World Meteorological Organization has issued its starkest warning yet that an El Niño event is likely to take hold in a matter of weeks, with an 80 per cent probability of emerging between June and August. Some forecasters suggest this could develop into a rare “super” El Niño, recalling the disruptive events of 1997-98 and 2015-16, with fears it may prove one of the strongest on record. The UN agency’s chief, Celeste Saulo, urged nations to “prepare for a potentially strong El Niño that will exacerbate drought and heavy rains and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and at sea.” The phenomenon, driven by unusually warm waters in the tropical Pacific, is expected to push global temperatures higher, with above-normal readings forecast almost everywhere this summer.

The fingerprints of El Niño will be unevenly felt across the planet. In South America, the north of the continent and Central America are likely to endure severe drought, while the centre and south-east of Brazil could receive abundant rainfall, upending agricultural cycles. Australia, which typically experiences hotter, drier conditions during El Niño, faces heightened bushfire risk, poor snow cover and late harvests. Indonesia and parts of Southeast Asia may see suppressed monsoon rains, threatening crops and water supplies, while West Africa’s Sahel and South Africa could also be parched. In the Atlantic, the hurricane season is forecast to be below average—an unusual boon for the United States and the Caribbean—but the Pacific is expected to be more active, with Mexico’s Caribbean coast already activating preventive plans for tropical cyclones.

Government and agencies have begun to respond. Colombia’s utility EPM launched a national campaign urging responsible water and energy use, as reservoirs rose only modestly and the state raised early alerts. In Brazil, physicist Paulo Artaxo warned that the country must “prepare adequately,” with São Paulo likely facing delayed rains and intense heatwaves. The WMO is pushing for early-warning systems to mitigate the economic and human toll, with Secretary-General António Guterres calling the El Niño a “urgent climate warning” that will “pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.”

The coming El Niño does not operate in a vacuum. Climate change has been systematically supercharging such natural oscillations: the La Niña “cold years” of today are already warmer than El Niño “hot years” of the last century, Australian scientists note. The WMO’s latest five-year outlook gives a 91 per cent chance that the global average temperature will set new records by 2030, a trajectory that El Niño will accelerate. Each episode is unique, forecasters caution, but the message from Geneva is clear: a planet already grappling with climate disruption must brace for more extreme weather, and perhaps a glimpse of the new normal.