Mexico, Canada Push for 16-Year Trade Pact Extension While US Stays Mum

Mexico and Canada have moved jointly to shore up the foundations of North American trade, formally requesting a 16-year extension of the T-MEC (USMCA) even as the United States withholds its position and ramps up bilateral pressure. In separate letters sent on Tuesday, Mexican Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard and Canadian Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc argued that the pact has been critical to continental supply chains and investment. Mexico’s missive emphasised seeking renewal “by consensus and with mutual respect,” while Canada’s communication arrived just hours before LeBlanc met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer—Ottawa’s first direct engagement after being excluded from last week’s initial US-Mexico round.

The Canadian overture comes against a turbulent backdrop. President Donald Trump revived his talk of annexing Canada as the “51st state” on Monday night, a provocation that has become a persistent irritant. Prime Minister Mark Carney, facing data showing a technical recession with two quarters of contracting GDP, insisted Canadian-made vehicles already meet Washington’s proposed new requirement that 50% of auto components originate in the United States—a rule that would hit Mexican production far harder. Domestic critics, including Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, have branded the downturn a “Carney Recession,” adding political fragility to Ottawa’s negotiating hand.

Viewed from Mexico City, the strategy has undergone a notable shift. Ebrard acknowledged that the free-trade model that once united the continent is gone, replaced by an America-first vision that prizes bilateral balances and national content. Mexico is therefore not defending the old orthodoxy but seeking to preserve its competitive edge by locking in longer-term access to the integrated market. The government has also signalled that it wants Canada quickly integrated into the talks; the next round of US-Mexico negotiations is set for June 16-17 in Washington, and a formal trilateral meeting is mandated by the treaty for July 1.

The coming weeks will determine whether the three nations can avoid the brinkmanship that characterised the original NAFTA renegotiation. Global trade watchers note that the US has yet to articulate its own vision for CUSMA’s future, leaving its partners to guess whether Washington seeks a fundamentally different framework or merely leverage. With a third round of talks pencilled for Mexico City in late July, the door remains open for a deal—but only if Washington engages multilaterally rather than continuing to extract concessions bilaterally.