Iran Strikes US Airbase as Hormuz Ceasefire Unravels

A fragile ceasefire in the Middle East came under severe strain on Thursday when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard struck a US airbase in retaliation for American attacks near the strategic port city of Bandar Abbas. According to Iranian state television, the base that had launched the earlier strikes was targeted at 04:50 local time, shortly after US forces had shot down four Iranian attack drones and destroyed a ground control station that was preparing to launch a fifth. Washington characterised its actions as “measured, purely defensive” and aimed at preserving a truce in place since early April, but the exchange marked the second round of American strikes inside Iran in three days and drew an immediate warning from Tehran of a “more decisive” response to any further aggression.

The escalation erupted just hours after President Donald Trump publicly dismissed reports of an imminent deal to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to “blow up” Oman if it sought to control the waterway. Viewed from Washington, the strikes were a calibrated response to what officials described as an imminent threat to American forces and commercial vessels. Yet Iranian military sources offered a different account, claiming that IRGC naval units had opened fire on an American oil tanker that attempted to cross the strait with its radar switched off, forcing it to retreat before US aircraft retaliated against a fuel depot near Bandar Abbas. This clash of narratives underscored the deep mistrust that has halted negotiations, with Tehran insisting it will not surrender its uranium enrichment programme or its claims over the strait.

Oil markets reacted violently. Brent crude surged past $97 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate climbed above $91 before a brief plunge on a subsequent report that a deal had been reached, only to rebound when that report was denied. Analysts in London noted that the price swings erased the previous day’s decline, reflecting traders’ sensitivity to any sign of a breakthrough or breakdown. The volatility was intensified by the wider regional turmoil: Israeli warplanes again bombarded Beirut and southern Lebanon, while the Israeli military advanced deeper into Gaza in defiance of a separate ceasefire, compounding the sense of an arc of crisis stretching from the Mediterranean to the Gulf.

Forward-looking assessments are bleak. The IRGC’s public warning, coupled with Trump’s blunt ultimatums, leaves scant room for de-escalation. The three-month-old conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes, and each fresh exchange of fire entrenches the perception that the ceasefire is little more than a rhetorical device. In the absence of a credible diplomatic framework, the cycle of action and retaliation looks set to continue, keeping energy prices elevated and the region on a knife’s edge.