Draft US-Iran Deal Seen as Tehran’s Victory as Hormuz Poised to Reopen

The most significant development in the three-month Iran conflict emerged on Wednesday when Iranian state television broadcast the outlines of a draft US-Iran accord, the so-called Memorandum of Islamabad. The document commits Washington to withdraw military forces from near Iranian territory and lift its naval blockade, while Iran would restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to pre-war levels within 30 days, with traffic jointly managed with Oman. If a final deal is reached within 60 days, it must be approved as a binding UN Security Council resolution.

Emerging from indirect negotiations mediated by Pakistan, the draft has been welcomed in Tehran as a strategic vindication. A Revolutionary Guard official assessed the likelihood of renewed fighting as low, though Iran insists on "tangible verification" before any steps. Viewed from Washington and London, however, the framework largely restores the status quo ante, leaving untouched the nuclear and proxy warfare concerns that prompted the US-led strikes in February. European capitals, conspicuously absent during the crisis, have done little to stiffen the administration’s stance, according to analysts.

The Strait of Hormuz, conduit for a fifth of global oil supplies, would see Iran charging transit fees, a provision that alarms Gulf states. Oman’s co-management role is elevated, but the exclusion of military vessels underscores the accord’s narrow scope. Israeli officials have reacted with unease, noting that parallel nuclear talks remain deadlocked. Meanwhile, the Israel Defence Forces continue to pound Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, where airstrikes killed over 30 persons on Tuesday — underscoring the unresolved regional conflagration that any comprehensive peace must address.

For President Trump, the deal has drawn fire from hawkish quarters. "The blowback from a bad deal will be significant," warned former State Department official Len Khodorkovsky, reflecting a belief that Washington has retreated from its maximalist war aims. Yet with domestic appetite for open-ended conflict fading and few allies pressing for escalation, room to negotiate hardened terms has shrunk. The memorandum’s 60-day window for a UN-endorsed final agreement thus confronts a chasm in trust: Iran demands a total end to hostilities on all fronts, while Washington insists on nuclear concessions. The coming weeks will reveal whether the Memorandum of Islamabad becomes a foundation for peace or merely another interim ceasefire.