World Braces for El Niño Return as UN Warns of Extreme Weather
The World Meteorological Organization puts the probability at 80% for the warming phenomenon to develop by August, threatening agriculture, water, and energy systems worldwide.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a stark warning this week, saying there is an 80 per cent chance that an El Niño event will form between June and August and a near-90 per cent probability it will persist through November. The phenomenon, driven by unusually warm waters in the equatorial Pacific, is expected to be at least moderate and possibly strong, disrupting temperature and rainfall patterns across the globe. “The footprint of an El Niño extends far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, affecting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources and livelihoods in entire regions,” said Celeste Saulo, the WMO secretary-general.
The impacts will vary sharply by region. In Latin America, where El Niño historically brings both torrential rains and drought, officials are sounding alarms. From Colombia’s coffee and maize belts to Argentina’s soy fields, farmers face a perilous season if forecasts hold. Saulo urged countries to use “climate intelligence” to anticipate risks. Across South Asia, India’s meteorological department already predicts a weaker monsoon, with June heat intensifying, raising concerns for crop yields and water reservoirs. South-east Asian nations like Indonesia are bracing for forest fires and drought, while Canada can expect a wetter, warmer summer. The Middle East, too, may see increased rainfall, but that could unleash flash floods in unprepared areas.
The brewing El Niño comes on the back of the warmest year on record, 2024, fuelled by the previous cycle. UN secretary-general António Guterres called the moment a test of global preparedness. “The only effective response is climate action that matches the scale of the crisis: ending our dependence on fossil fuels, accelerating the renewable energy transition, protecting the most vulnerable, and providing early warning systems for all,” he said. Historical analogues are sobering: the super El Niño of 2015-16 pushed global temperatures to new extremes and caused billions of dollars in economic damage. Some models now hint that the developing episode could reach comparable intensity, though WMO cautions that uncertainty remains.
As weather agencies from Buenos Aires to New Delhi analyse the latest ocean temperature anomalies, the consensus is clear: the world is entering a phase of heightened climate risk. The nine- to twelve-month life cycle of El Niño makes it imperative to act now to bolster water management, crop insurance and disaster response. While scientists cannot yet pinpoint exactly where droughts will bite hardest or which rivers will overflow, the time for early action is now. The question is not whether El Niño will cause disruptions, but how severe they will be and whether nations have the will to prepare.
How the same story is told elsewhere.
Latin America is on high alert for El Niño's return, with an 80% chance between June and August. Agricultural sectors in countries like Colombia are bracing for uneven impacts—some crops are at risk, others might benefit from rainfall shifts, while officials urge extreme precaution and climate-smart planning.
The WMO's El Niño warning reverberates directly on India's monsoon. With an 80% chance of an event between June and August, forecasts point to a severely weakened monsoon and a hotter-than-normal June. The spectre of a 'super' El Niño, made worse by climate change, threatens to hit agriculture and water resources hard.
A Canadian report unpacks how a Pacific-born phenomenon could shape the country's summer. With an 80% chance of El Niño between June and August, it might bring wetter and warmer conditions to parts of the Americas, but the extent remains uncertain. Local meteorologists offer a measured, descriptive outlook rather than an alarmist one.
Italy and the Mediterranean European region brace for a 'little one' El Niño that will hit hard. The UN, alarmed, urges readiness for heatwaves, droughts, and floods, with an 80% chance of conditions between June and August. Driven by unusually warm Pacific waters, the phenomenon is set to upend climate patterns across the Mediterranean as well.
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