Trump ties Iran deal to Arab normalisation with Israel, threatens Oman over Hormuz

President Donald Trump has dramatically expanded the conditions for ending the war with Iran, declaring he may refuse to sign any peace agreement unless Saudi Arabia, Qatar and other Arab states join the Abraham Accords and normalise relations with Israel. “These countries owe us,” he told reporters at a White House cabinet meeting on Wednesday, adding he was “not sure” a deal was worthwhile without their participation. The abrupt linkage of the nuclear and maritime negotiations to a contentious diplomatic realignment in the region was accompanied by an even sharper warning aimed at Oman: should the sultanate attempt to jointly manage the Strait of Hormuz with Iran, “we will have to blow them up.” The remarks, laced with threats of resumed military operations if Iran does not yield, mark a shift towards an uncompromising, all-or-nothing posture that has unsettled capitals across the Middle East and beyond.

Viewed from Tehran, the American stance clashes directly with the Islamic Republic’s own red lines. Iranian state television had earlier broadcast what it called a draft memorandum of understanding under which US forces would withdraw from areas near Iran, sanctions would be lifted, and the Strait of Hormuz would be managed jointly by Iran and Oman, with Tehran retaining inspection and service-fee rights. The White House immediately dismissed the document as a “complete fabrication,” but its disclosure nonetheless exposed the chasm between the two sides. Trump further rejected any transfer of Iran’s enriched uranium to Russia or China, and ruled out sanctions relief in exchange for the nuclear material. “No, no, absolutely no sanctions relief,” he said in a separate interview with PBS. Analysts in London note that by foreclosing even these tentative compromises, Washington is demanding a total capitulation that Iran’s leadership can ill afford politically, even as its economy, by Trump’s description, is “in free fall” with 250 percent inflation.

From the perspective of regional capitals, the reintroduction of the Abraham Accords as a precondition for peace has been met with deep scepticism. Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Pakistan and Turkey have all been pressed to join the normalisation framework with Israel, yet none has shown any inclination to do so under present circumstances. Trump’s insistence that their membership could be a component of broader negotiations with Iran suggests an attempt to bundle together disparate crises into a grand bargain, but diplomats in Brussels and Arab League corridors see it as a recipe for deadlock. Meanwhile, the president’s dismissal of domestic political costs — “I don’t care about the midterms,” he said, citing primary victories the night before — reinforces the impression of a leader untroubled by electoral constraints as he pursues a “perfect” rather than merely good deal.

Forward-looking analysis points to a negotiating process that is simultaneously advancing and unravelling. Trump claims Iran is “negotiating on fumes” after the destruction of its navy and air force, and that Tehran desperately wants an accord. Yet his administration’s refusal to accept anything short of total Iranian strategic retreat — including an open Strait of Hormuz supervised only by the United States, the permanent forfeiture of enriched uranium without sanctions reprieve, and a regional diplomatic revolution — leaves few avenues for a face-saving exit. Viewed from Moscow, the American maximalism risks prolonging the conflict; from Beijing, it may complicate energy security. The coming weeks will test whether Trump’s brinkmanship can extract unprecedented concessions, or whether the war will resume with consequences far beyond the Gulf.