Strong El Niño Likely as Brazil and Colombia Issue Alerts

The Pacific warming known as El Niño is rapidly gaining strength, with climate models now pointing to a high probability of a powerful event that could trigger extreme weather across the globe. Latest estimates suggest an 82% chance of the phenomenon becoming established by July, rising to 96% for the southern hemisphere summer months, while the odds of it reaching strong or very strong intensity in the second half of 2026 stand at 70%, according to data from Brazil’s national monitoring centre. These convergent forecasts have prompted governments in vulnerable regions to shift from monitoring to active preparation.

In South America, Brazilian authorities have taken the most visible steps, setting up a dedicated situation room after Cemaden, the natural disaster monitoring agency, warned the presidency of a 70% probability of an intense El Niño. Officials fear a scenario of extreme drought and widespread wildfires, alongside intense storms and heatwaves that could affect different regions of the country simultaneously. The Amazon basin, already stressed by deforestation, is seen as particularly susceptible to reduced rainfall. Neighbouring Colombia faces its own risks: the national rice federation, Fedearroz, has released an emergency guide for growers, urging them to adapt planting schedules and water management to cope with expected precipitation deficits and soaring temperatures that threaten crop yields.

The phenomenon’s footprint, however, stretches far beyond Latin America. Climate projections published by monitoring agencies indicate that drought conditions will blanket much of northern South America, from Brazil and Colombia to Venezuela, while southern African nations including South Africa, Namibia, Botswana and Zimbabwe are also likely to suffer rainfall shortages. The irregular distribution of rains, rather than a uniform drying, will be one of the trickiest challenges for farmers from the Colombian plains to the African veldt, complicating everything from fertilisation to pest control.

The economic ripples are already being priced in. Analysts in São Paulo note that even the cost of chocolate could climb if adverse weather hits major cocoa-producing regions, a reminder that El Niño’s disruption of Pacific fisheries, shifting air currents and destabilisation of regional climates tends to reverberate through global commodity markets. As the old fisherman’s name for the phenomenon—the Christ Child, for its tendency to peak around Christmas—gains a more ominous connotation, governments and producers are left to hope that the expected goleada is more a narrow defeat than a rout.