Heatwaves Sweep Europe and Asia as Scientists Warn of Hotter Years Ahead

The world is on notice that the hottest year ever recorded — 2024 — could be eclipsed within the next half-decade, according to the UN's World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). The agency and the UK Met Office calculate an 86 per cent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will exceed the roughly 1.55C above pre-industrial levels set in 2024, and there is a 75 per cent probability that the five-year mean for the period will breach the symbolic 1.5C threshold. Global average temperatures could rise as high as 1.9C over the 1850-1900 baseline, scientists warned in separate projections released Thursday. That long-range forecast comes as the northern hemisphere is already enduring a spate of extreme May heat.

In Europe, a record-smashing heatwave that brought a 35.1C reading to Kew Gardens in west London earlier this week is at last relenting. The Met Office expects London to drop to 31C on Thursday, with thundery showers and fresher air moving in, making another “tropical night” — where temperatures stay above 20C — unlikely. Yet the reprieve is partial: high demand strained water supplies in Kent, prompting an appeal for essential use only, and multiple deaths were attributed to the hot weather. Across the Channel, France saw the mercury climb to 37.8C on Thursday, a new May record for the country, with 14 départements still under orange heat alert. The French weather service expects the wave to break by Sunday, while the greater Paris region imposed differentiated traffic restrictions. Germany, too, has been roasting under a so-called “heat dome” of around 30C, though meteorologists forecast a gradual cooldown as cooler air from the North and Baltic seas arrives, along with the threat of violent thunderstorms.

The heat is not confined to Europe. In East Asia, Taipei's downtown weather station recorded 38.3C on Wednesday afternoon, the hottest May day since the observatory opened in 1896. Taiwan's Central Weather Administration linked the spike to a Pacific high-pressure system, scant cloud cover, and descending air currents that baked the Taipei basin, with overnight temperatures remaining unusually high. Similarly punishing conditions prompted Italian authorities to place four cities, including Rome, on red alert.

Further into the future, a predicted El Niño event could amplify the misery. Brazilian experts warn that the next “El Niño Godzilla,” expected in the spring and summer of 2026–27, is likely to bring drought to the country's north and northeast — intensifying wildfires and harming public health — while deluging the south with floods, all of which could be worsened by heatwaves. This aligns with the WMO's scenario: a new El Niño by late 2026, according to one lead author, could push 2027 past the 2024 high. For a planet already grappling with immediate heat-driven disruptions — water rationing, excess mortality, and transport curbs — the message is clear: the breaks between temperature extremes are becoming shorter, and the peaks ever higher.