Gender pay gap widens as declining births force hard questions on women’s work

Progress towards income equality between men and women has not merely stalled but is reversing, according to a closely watched Swedish study. A report by Swedbank, drawing on official statistics, now projects that the gap in earned income will not close until 2063 — a sharp deterioration from just three years ago, when the same model foresaw parity by 2048. Madelén Falkenhäll, an economist at the bank, described a sense that women had been gaining ground more steadily in earlier years and that the current trend is moving "in the wrong direction". The findings also expose stark regional divisions: in Jönköping county, equality is forecast by 2051, whereas in Norrbotten it could take until 2157.

Viewed from São Paulo, the picture is no less sobering. Brazilian women have never been more present in the labour market, with participation climbing from 34.8 per cent in 1990 to 53 per cent in 2023. Yet a study by Think Eva and the Olga foundation reveals that one in every four women in Brazil survives on less than six dollars a day. The research, titled "Elas Pagam a Conta" ("They Pay the Bill"), argues that rising female employment has not translated into prosperity because structural barriers — from lower wages to disproportionate spending on essentials — remain entrenched. The financial industry, the study notes, has yet to take serious notice of these patterns or of evidence that women invest more prudently.

In India, the intersection of gender and economics is being reframed by a demographic alarm. The fertility rate has slipped below the 2.1 replacement threshold, prompting Edelweiss Mutual Fund CEO Radhika Gupta to suggest that the decline should trigger a new economic conversation — one centred on productivity, skills, and the urgency of female workforce participation. The question "Should women work?" is no longer a cultural trope but a macroeconomic imperative, as fewer births risk sapping long-term growth.

These disparate national threads converge on a global trend that demographers have been tracking with growing unease. Across the world, the average number of births per woman has fallen below the replacement level, and more than two-thirds of nations now face population decline without immigration. Crucially, the fall is increasingly driven not by couples choosing smaller families but by fewer people forming couples at all. Researchers point to the isolating effects of smartphone-driven dating culture and warn that AI could intensify the retreat from intimate relationships.

Analysts in London see the simultaneous stagnation of gender pay equity and the collapse in fertility as a pair of challenges that will force governments into uncomfortable choices. The Swedish data suggest that without policy intervention, market forces alone will not close income gaps for another four decades. In that time, the demographic pressures visible in India and across much of the industrialised world will almost certainly compel states to re-examine the economic incentives around motherhood and women’s work. Whether that leads to expanded childcare and parental leave — or, in some societies, to a backlash that pressures women out of the labour force — remains an open question.