Airlines Deplore ‘Disappointing’ SAF Output at Just 0.8% of Fuel Needs

The global output of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is expected to reach a paltry 2.4 million tonnes in 2026, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) disclosed at its annual assembly in Rio de Janeiro. That volume represents a mere 0.8 per cent of total aviation fuel consumption, and will cost carriers an estimated $4.3 billion — a sum that highlights both the scarcity and the expense of the industry’s main decarbonisation lever.

The figures mark only a marginal improvement on the 0.6 per cent share recorded in 2025, leaving the sector far short of its self‑imposed ambition to deliver 65 per cent of carbon mitigation through SAF by 2050. Willie Walsh, IATA’s director‑general, described the trajectory as “another disappointing year” — a blunt assessment that reverberated through the conference halls in Rio and underscored the growing gulf between aspiration and reality.

That disappointment is felt acutely across regions. From a Latin American vantage point, the choice of Brazil as host was freighted with symbolism: the country is a biofuels powerhouse, yet even its ethanol infrastructure has not translated into swift SAF scale‑up. European carriers, meanwhile, are confronting high compliance costs and tightening regulatory mandates, while lamenting that the technology remains prohibitively expensive. Viewed from the Middle East, the situation is doubly frustrating. The protracted conflict there has sent conventional jet fuel prices spiralling, but — as analysts in the region note — the price shock has done little to boost investment in synthetic alternatives, a missed signal that risks perpetuating the supply‑demand mismatch.

The upshot is a sector stuck in a holding pattern. Without aggressive government mandates, subsidies, or carbon pricing that forces a faster pivot, the 65‑by‑2050 goal looks increasingly fanciful. The energy security jolt that many hoped would galvanise a sustainable fuels revolution has, for now, passed unused — leaving airlines exposed to both fossil‑fuel volatility and the mounting impatience of regulators and climate‑conscious passengers.